Super Bowl predictions

Seattle won, which was expected. 

As the playoffs progressed, I went back and looked at the model I developed. I streamlined it a lot, and went back to 2015 to see if it was true then, too.   It was!

Here's what I did:

• In week 10, I looked at the 4 teams from each conference who had the highest point differential at that point in the season. 
• in all but one year, one of those 8 teams won the Super Bowl. The exception was in 2018, when New England won; they were the fifth best team in the AFC. (I should note that the 5th best did make the superbowl a few times, but this was the only win). 
• Taking the 5 best in each conference solves this problem

• At season's end, I took those teams and looked at the average points per game that were allowed on defense (for the entire year)
• some of the teams didn't make the playoffs.  That's okay, any of the remaining teams are all we need to consider 
• other teams made the playoffs, but because they weren't in the first 10, they weren't considered - None of them have ever won the Super Bowl. 

• Last, I sorted them by PPG allowed, and the team with the lowest PPG allowed is the expected winner. 
• The playoffs are a little weird, and its hard to call a winner.  In the 11 years I considered:
• 2 times, the superbowl champion was the best team (so we knew at the start of the playoffs)
• 3 times, the next best after the wildcard weekend won
• 3 times, the next best after the divisional playoffs won
• 3 times, it went to the conference championship
• There was only one year where the best team didn't win; the second best did.  That was in 2022 when Kansas City beat Philadelphia on the last drive. Everything else seemed right to that point.

So, essentially, we always know that the superbowl winner will come from that group, and we can assess the likelihood of a team winning as the playoffs progress...

 

Nikola Tesla

Tesla was an inventor very much ahead of his time. His scientific endeavors went further than anyone - before or since - had gone. 

But his prolific works often were stolen. Amazingly (even for his time) he took it in stride. At some point he said:

"I Don't Care That They Stole My Idea… I Care That They Don't Have Any Of Their Own."

The Seattle Seahawks

On the surface, its kind of bizarre that just after they won the SuperBowl, the Seahawks will be sold.

But there's way more to this story.  Paul Allen bought the team (along with some other sports franchises) many years ago.  More recently, he moved those assets (along with others) into a trust.  His explicit directions via his will and that trust were that his sister, Jody, would serve as the trustee, and these teams would be sold, and all proceeds would be directed to charity.

The NFL has a rule that there must be a single, majority owner.  Trusts, and other ownership arrangements are not allowed.  So it makes sense ... sort of ...

 

Except that Paul Allen died in 2018, you know, like 8 years ago, and the sale still hasn't happened.  And you might ask why?  And the answer is in the team's relationship to the city and state.

When funding was approved for the new stadium for the Seahawks, a clause was written in, that if he sold or moved the team within 25 years, he would owe 10% of the value of the team as a penalty.  That agreement was signed in 1999, which means that it literally just expired.

So now that there is no more penalty hanging over the team, the NFL is "encouraging" the sale. 

And in case you wondered, he bought the team in 1997 for just under $200 million.  Its current value is at its peak, after a SuperBowl win, and is estimated to be around $8 billion.  That's around a 400% increase in value in 30 years.

Mind blown.  Dang.  It must be good to be wealthy.  (I'm half kidding)

More importantly, that money is going to charity, where hopefully it will do some tremendous good.  Hats off to him for thinking about making the world a little better through his investment.  And I'm glad the Seahawks won, in that case, to maximize that benefit.

Watch "The NFL’s Secret Weapon in London Is This Hidden Stadium Tech | WSJ Tech Behind" on YouTube

This is so cool!  And the engineering behind it is amazing. 

https://youtu.be/cnV4JkTGUjo?si=0ea97SjDN1rW18bO

Watch "We Uncovered the Scheme Keeping Grocery Prices High" on YouTube

This is so whacked. It's one way large corporations manage to keep food prices high, and churning out big profits.  

https://youtu.be/odhVF_xLIQA?si=5_fAMgtU_pP7t52Z

What we’re up against…

A few days ago, my wife got a random text from a (now former) friend. 

This friend joined the maga (and maha) cult and at one point, she made it her mission to "convert" my wife. My wife finally had to tell her to stop. And she did. That is, until this text….

She was on some weird tirade about how "Islamists" (code for a form of racism) are taking over parts of the world and it's dangerous, and these were former allies. It had no specific reason, and nothing in the current news cycle suggested anything about the rationale for why she sent it. 

I was giving it some thought, and it feels like this is classic cult behavior. You have to validate why you are there to the people outside, and periodically try and "recruit" people you know to join you through any one of a number of things that might catch their attention. 

In this specific case, it felt like proselytizing. "I must save you (from yourself)."  

And one other thing, she could have replaced the word "Islamist" with the word "black" and turned the clock back 100 years and it would have sense in that context, too.

This is what those of us who are rational are up against. 

Waymo Exec Admits Remote Operators in Philippines Help Guide US Robotaxis | EV

What I take away from this is:

1.  Waymo's automation is mostly smoke and mirrors and is not ready for the real world. 

2. These "autonomous vehicles" are being driven remotely by people who are not in the US and who do not possess a valid drivers license. 

3.  These company rightly should be shut down as committing fraud to the government and its investors - and for essentially endangering their passengers. 

I stand by that, amidst the wishy-washy comments from the company. 

https://eletric-vehicles.com/waymo/waymo-exec-admits-remote-operators-in-philippines-help-guide-us-robotaxis/