Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Herd immunity? Intentional infections? College sports?

What do these three things have in common? They all came up on boomer Esiason's radio show and are documented here

https://apple.news/AKEOxYAkjQTSKXJs20AH3zQ

First, and most obviously, he doesn't understand what herd immunity means. It applies to a general population, not to a group of student / athletes who otherwise live among other people. And he doesn't quite get how it works either. 

He (or you) can read more here. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

But then he says infections are intentional. As though there's a plan in mind here. For a college to intentionally infect students for the nefarious reason of wanting to win. And being organized and thoughtful enough to try and pull it off. 

Rather the more obvious answer: they are sports programs who are reckless, with student/athletes who may be careless, trying to bring things back "to normal" and who have been in that situation in a few weeks, after having been home among their family and friends off campus, where they may have become carriers. 

Sometimes these talking heads are so stupid. 

And if they can't even figure out how to test enough - and afford testing for the student/athletes, they surely can't figure out how to intentionally infect everyone. 

Senator Scott’s response to trump-russia-bounty

He also took several days to craft a response. 

"I want to get the facts. Does it surprise me about Putin? He's our adversary, he supports Iran, he's a thug."

A thug. Wow. Strong language. 

And yeah we do need to get to the facts of that part.

What of mr trump choosing to do nothing with the information? Of dereliction of his duty?

I'm sure he's willing to gloss over that part. The only truth he wants is to just blame someone else and make it go away. 

Rubios response to the trump-russia-bounty story

It only took him two days to come up with this drivel...

"It is important to be cautious on intelligence writ large, because when it's proven to not be accurate, it can lead to things like a war or other measures that proved to be counterproductive. You pull out one little piece and you put it in the public domain and you act like it was some smoking gun situation. So that's one of the reasons I just don't comment on reports such as these."

Yes, surely, information out of context can be problematic.  And we only know what information we are fed. 

But now that we have heard from anonymous folks in intelligence, the EU, the UK, a few former members of intelligence, Senator Murphy, and even the questionable integrity John Bolton, I think we can surmise there is truth in here and that mr trump was guilty of dereliction of his duty. 


Wear a mask!

Saturday, June 27, 2020

In my opinion

When trump first announced his bid for the presidency, it was hard to take him seriously. It's not like he had any experience, and I have no idea if he ever ran a successful business.

But he's a showman and an entertainer. So he said words, the best words, so many words. And he got people stirred up for an idyllic america. He bought his way onto the scene with a campaign that relied on donations and hat purchases.

And then he became a "serious" contender in the Republican Party for reasons that are hard to understand (but really it was about that buying his way up in exchange for particular endorsements).

I don't think he ever wanted to win. It's just an opinion. But I think he did it for a couple of reasons: ego, to buy some influence in international deals (or perhaps to reduce some debts), to drum up support for his own planned news network, and most importantly so he take any leftover campaign funds and transfer them to his charity - which he used as a piggy bank.

Then along comes Russia. Putin has plans on shaping world views. But the EU and the US were in his way. If he could help create some dissension in either, or both, he could exert his will and become the most powerful man - and set world policy.

He had hackers and trolls and disinformation at his disposal. He had analytics sites he could effectively buy to peddle influence.

He saw an opportunity with Britain to push the ideal he heard from several people (mostly notably Boris Johnson) to talk up British independence. A disinformation campaign there could help them achieve their own goal and would weaken both the EU and Britain.

And boy did it....

Meanwhile he saw Donald trump bumbling along. And Donald had reached out to Putin for "help" somewhat publicly. Donald was totally self absorbed and only wanted things for himself. What if putin helped him win the election, and told him he did, so he'd "owe Putin" and would go along with things. And besides Hillary was an adversary.

From Putin's perspective that would be a win and would allow him to get his world view shaped.

Donald wins. There's intelligence information gathered. Mueller is hired to investigate. MI6 in Britain has the goods too, but is too busy to deal with it.

And so however it goes down. Whether it was luck, a targeted disinformation campaign, or vote manipulation matters - but in this context doesn't. Putin has a mostly unwitting bozo who he can control in the Whitehouse.

The US is now going to be removed from the world stage for a while.

And we stumble in the dark for 3 years. I'm assuming there was some ... influence ... peddled to some key senators and congresspeople to do nothing. What that looks like, or perhaps it's just that they really don't care, I really don't know.

In any event, here we are in the next election year and there are questions about whether Russia (or another country) would help again to influence an election. We simply don't know. Most countries don't like trump. A few maybe would be willing to help; he asked china but my guess is they don't care if he wins or loses, though it's just a guess

But if you look at it from Putin's point of view, the damage is done. Trump is not a necessary pawn any longer. If he stays then perhaps there are issues because trump would believe himself to be king and may go mad with power (and perhaps may not be so easily manipulated); or then again maybe he continues to play along.

But if he goes, then surely the damage already done could easily last another decade to fix. Meaning america is no threat for now, anyway.

If you read the tea leaves, the information that came out yesterday about Putin paying bounties on American soldiers and trump knowing about it - but doing nothing - is pretty much why there's a treason provision. Why does that come out shortly before an election? To damage him and stirs more issues into the pot? That kind of thing would leave us infighting for a while...

And speaking of that, this info leaves the GOP in an impossible spot. They've hitched their wagons to trump. He is the GOP. His fate is their fate.

Will they do something about it? Do they care?

The way I see it, they have three options: (1) turn the same blind eye and do nothing. Which is hard under these circumstances and will cause them long term harm. (2) turn on Donald, and abandon him to save themselves. A difficult choice because that divorce would be messy and could be too late. Or (3) get him to "not seek re-election" in which case they could put forth a new candidate. The problem is that it's 4 months away from the election, and someone would have to come forward with enough of a clear message that separates from trump and has time to build. It's a tall task. And these things take a lot of time. Plus I don't think they'd ever agree on *who* that should be.

I think it won't be that easy, and they'll take a month to decide what they want to do, hemming and hawing until then. And suddenly, we're 3 months out.

And in between I firmly believe we'll see more dirt come out about trump. Whatever that may be. So it will be an impossible decision and the only choice left will be #2 to try and swim like rats off a sinking ship.

Stay tuned for the mayhem amid a pandemic.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 | Flourish

In case you thought Covid is a hoax. Or no worse than the flu.

Here's a great visualization.

https://app.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/


Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Editing mistake?

This is the headline that appeared on cbs sports news feed.

And the article changes the pic once you open it.

Note: not the same player.

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Absurdity in the face of a pandemic

Disney announced their re-opening plans, and people went crazy.  Yay, the magic!  Yay, vacation!

Never mind that the world (quite literally in some cases) is burning.  That there are still social issues.  That we have a large disconnect among people (between masks, and science, and politics).  Its a wonder we're still functioning.

And then there's still this little thing called Covid-19, that no amount of "wishing away" will make a difference.  People are still getting infected, and dying.  And transmission rates are still high.

And Florida's case numbers are GROWING daily.

But by all means, lets forget about that!

Disneys vacation club properties opened yesterday, meaning that there are people staying at the resorts. For better or worse, its kind of back to business.

And maybe it bothered me more than it should have, but bloggers started showing up to "report" on the reopening. Because they want to get out, or be first, or be a part of it, or maybe because they want to feel normal too?

And then Disney opened the reservation system for theme parks.

A couple of things I observed:

1. It crashed.

2. People started complaining about an inability to book more than three days of theme parks - in spite of booking multiple trips spanning multiple days for the rest of the year and early next year (why? Just why?) and some have noticed that it's all subject to change and there are various factors in whether they can get a reservation at all.

3.  For reasons I don't quite get, the reservations people got were for "the whole day" rather than some sort of timed entry. So I can imagine the crowd for park opening will be stupid.

4. I keep reading about people assuming it's business as usual once these theme parks get open. I can't wait to see what happens when they find out how it's really going to go.

5  Disney has stated that many/most rides will be open with various capacity constraints and operational changes as needed.  And this is all subject to change at any time.  Which I find complicates #4.

6. Hollywood Studios filled to its capacity (whatever that is) on the first day its open. I would assume because of the Star Wars ride.

Let me be clear about something.  Disney opened for financial reasons.  They could only trade on their brand for so long, and they had some big loans that they have to cover.  The decision to re-open (while complicated by factors with the state and DVC) was strictly about money.

And people wanting to visit are just being stupid.  There.  I said it.

Why would you stay in a hotel and be around a lot of people. 

Surely this can't end as well as anyone would like.  And yeah, there is a need to get to business.  But, is this smart? I guess so, because people started booking vacations.

Anyway, good luck. And here's to hoping that they don't have to shut down again.





Treason? Really?

Trump has been railing about "Obamagate" for a while now.

Yesterday, he decided to tell us what the supposed "crimes" Obama committed while in office might have been.

He repeated the same word three times.

"Treason"


The Constitution has a specific definition for the word: "Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort."

That and only that. President Obama never levied war nor gave aid or comfort to our enemies. 

However, in stating that Obama did this, Trump is guilty of levying a false accusation of unsurpassed gravity and guilty of violating his oath of office, specifically,  to protect and defend Article III, which defines treason.

That's right, in levying a false (and unsubstantiated) claim against his predecessor, he is guilty of a high crime that should have him removed from office.

His words have meaning, and the senate should hold up their oath of office, and hold him to account for using such salacious words. 

And yet they will simply shrug it off as "Trump being Trump"....all the while they were breathless and rabid about Obama's coffee cup salute that was the single most egregious thing ever!

And one might argue that Trump is projecting his own treason (he has arguably aided enemies).

Saturday, June 20, 2020

Stop the insanity!

I feel like every day is a new day in stupidity when it comes to trump and the gop. Their continued assault on us and our rights is nothing short of breathtaking.

But the one thing that gets me right now is the stupidity around wearing a mask. Why people argue about this is beyond me. There is one simple way to slow the spread of the virus: wear a freaking mask. It's not hard, and while it may be annoying, it shouldn't really be up for debate.

But of course it is.

Meanwhile in Florida, several counties have enacted mask orders. It's a way to keep the population safe. And there's one gop state representative who has decided this is a bad idea and is suing the counties that enacted them, citing "invasion of privacy"...which is kind of the opposite of what you hear when they talk about Muslims and the burka and how you don't know who's behind the veil.

Anyway, I suspect he doesn't understand what privacy is, exactly. And I'm not sure, as a member of the state house, that he has standing to sue the counties. But who the heck knows anymore.

Florida man, at his finest.

Saturday, June 13, 2020

AD: Lindsey Graham Loves Joe Biden

As Greens Reckon With Racism, Staff At A Major Group Revolt Over Pro-Trump Board Member


this guy owns the Miami Dolphins in the nfl. Not that he was getting my money, anyway, but now I want nothing to do with his (putrid) product. 




Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

Coronavirus reporting

The lady setup Florida's tracking dashboard, who was fired for (mumble, mumble, pick a reason) - and who later told us it was because the gov didn't like her level of accuracy, has setup her own website to track info accurately.

https://floridacovidaction.com/

#Awesome. Real information! 

Thursday, June 11, 2020

Covid 19 Cases rise in Florida, as do hospitalizations

In case you wondered how we're doing as a state. Disney world straddles between orange and Osceola counties

Https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-increasing-coronavirus-cases-20200610-pentekfcjvhfrnvxpa3btyg3yy-story.html


Increase in cases
Increase in deaths
MARTIN
321%
117%
COLLIER
216%
128%
ST. LUCIE
153%
24%
POLK
120%
139%
PALM BEACH
116%
82%
HILLSBOROUGH
116%
184%
PINELLAS
108%
116%
LEE
100%
139%
CHARLOTTE
86%
177%
LEON
82%
40%
MANATEE
78%
72%
BAY
74%
33%
SARASOTA
74%
77%
HIGHLANDS
70%
29%
INDIAN RIVER
69%
38%
OKALOOSA
68%
20%
DUVAL
67%
112%
ORANGE
64%
29%
SANTA ROSA
63%
13%
VOLUSIA
59%
67%
PASCO
53%
88%
MIAMI-DADE
49%
88%
ESCAMBIA
49%
157%
MARION
46%
60%
OSCEOLA
46%
133%
BREVARD
45%
63%
BROWARD
44%
60%
LAKE
43%
7%
MONROE
43%
33%
CLAY
41%
78%
NASSAU
39%
0%
FLAGLER
38%
0%
ALACHUA
38%
60%
SEMINOLE
34%
50%
ST. JOHNS
32%
50%
HERNANDO
31%
0%
CITRUS
28%
9%
SUMTER
11%
21%
Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone. 

Vote him out: desantis

 While I have a lot to say about Desantis, I want to start by talking about Disney. Florida spent time to craft legislation to try and keep ...