A follow up about Disney parks.

Disney world has been taking reservations along the way, always starting about one month out, and looking beyond that, into the future. There's a lot of aspiration in the idea of booking in the near-ish future. And I'm sure as a company they are assuming/hoping they can reopen shortly.

But things are very fluid. Disney has no crystal ball and can't see the future. And honestly anyone who is now booking a trip for the immediate future is a fool.

Yes disney is the bubble. The happiest place on earth. A place where you leave your troubles behind. And that's all fine and well.

Except that this virus affects *everyone* and in a crowded space like theme parks, such a thing can run rampant and affect scores of people.

So disney is balancing costs, losses, good will, safety, perception, and the risk of liability.

So as we move along through the pandemic, about 2-3 weeks prior to arrival dates, they send a message to the families with bookings (whether it's new or something you booked last year) and say "sorry we're still closed. Here's a refund on what you paid. Check back soon to rebook a future vacation"

And in April and May they've come along in the last week of the month and said they won't be accepting new reservations for another month further out, so right now you can not book anything new in June.

But here's the thing. The dunderheads of the world overreact. "You've been closed for a while now. I want a vacation in the happiest place. You need to reopen" or "I keep having to rebook and worry about flights and taking time off work. When will this end?"

Or they take umbrage with the policies for when they do reopen "masks? No way man this america! You lost my business"

And what seems lost in here is the very real possibility that Disney will change in some fundamental ways. People want things to "go back to normal" and simply can't be bothered to care that it will be different.

Disney has been seeking a way to tweak their business model for a while now. Keep attendance at a point where they like it, and be more exclusive. Cater to the wealthy more. Put limits on those of us who don't spend as much. Here's the perfect chance. Will they take it?

I mean this can't be easy. There's no one-size-fits-all answer. The dopes in the Oval Office and Tallahassee can say and do whatever stupid things they want. Though of course they shouldn't. Disney will act in their own best interests. And will continue to balance all the things I mentioned above.

A couple of industry analysts were asked to weigh in and speculate on opening dates for the theme parks Disney owns.

While a few were optimistic and suggested late summer (Labor Day seemed to a target), several others thought maybe the fall. And a few just said "we're prepared for it to be 2021."

And that goes right back to the idea of the nba setting the stage for opening.

There is expected to be an announcement in a week or so. Stay tuned.

No, NASA didn’t find a parallel-universe where time runs backward

A reminder to be careful what you read! 

Peter Gorham, the principal investigator on ANITA, says it's "some unfortunate tabloid journalism" and notes an early report by the Daily Star "just made some things up about myself and our experiment." 

https://www.cnet.com/news/no-nasa-didnt-find-a-parallel-universe-where-time-runs-backward/

Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone. 

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Disney world reopening?

The governor of Florida is all in to reopen  the state, consequences meh.

So he asked the theme parks to submit their proposals for reopening. As you may know, Disney has a complex relationship with the state. And in general they don't take orders. They do what they want. The request to submit a proposal was met with an almost yawn.

Though of course the media ate it up because Disney was being asked for their plan. There was a palpable expectation and a little murmur.

For their part, Disney did come up with a general statement for both US parks, but was noncommittal on dates. And it wasn't a plan just a "hey we're looking into it..."

Meanwhile, sea world was trying out rides wearing masks and said they'd submit something soon. And universal jumped in and submitted its proposal to reopen, to the Orlando panel designated for such things. And that panel forwarded the plan on to the state.

But here's where it gets funny. The information about "Orlando area theme parks" submitting (or planning to submit) their proposals, along with a June 1st date for universal, was glommed up by the media as Disney has a plan to reopen on June 1st. 

Which was not the case. But don't let facts get in the way! The stock market reacted to "disneys reopening" and disneys stock price rose before anyone noticed what they fundamentally got wrong. 

Mostly silent, no one knows what Disney will do. 

Meanwhile, there was an interesting thing that happened with the NBA. They really want to finish their season and host the playoffs. But they know they can't do it in front of fans, and using stadiums around the country, with travel and other factors, wasn't going to work. 

So they've been tossing around this idea of playing "in a bubble" somewhere. This location would have to be able to have several courts in close proximity, and would have to have hotel space to host all of the teams and any staff. 

What kind of place could do those things? A few weeks ago disney worlds "wide world of sports" was mentioned as a location. On their earnings call, Disney was asked about this, and they were naturally noncommittal but said they were looking at ways to do things to get games back on espn. 

And now players are being told that there is going to be a warmup period starting in mid-June, and they may resume play in mid-to-late-July....somewhere but not in front of fans. And it will be in a single location. 

Disney world is a natural fit, of course. The large "cheer facility" could have several courts to play on. There are lots of hotels. And the espn tie-in makes this easy in many ways. 

And here's where it relates back to theme parks reopening. If this works out, you could essentially be reopening in a very controlled way. A way that benefits them as a corporation (see my previous comment about how disney does what they want) because there would a moderate number of rooms being used at whatever hotels they decide. You would need catering staff, bus drivers, and arena staff. You'd learn a lot about testing and controlling access. 

And then espn wins because there would be games to show. And all the while it works as a big advertisement. 

....and they don't have to actually open anything to the public at large. Maybe they take the teams on some specific rides and whatnot. 

If everything goes well, this lasts for a month or two, then they gradually re-open some number of rooms and offer select groups of people to come and visit and maybe gives them a few rides, too. 

Don't count out the fact that disney is masterful at putting spin on anything. "We've already reopened! Disney Springs is there! And we're going to merge sports and theme parks but don't want to expose other people from outside the bubble..."

And just like that everyone sees they are open again. Though, not really.

For us, as regular visitors, they surely will change all the rules to require reservations, limit entry, and raise prices. 

Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

Rigged numbers. Yeah that sounds about right...

I sure am glad I live in a state that is looking out for the well being of its residents. Oh wait. I don't.

Funny. The official numbers were showing an uptick in cases as the state reopened. Then this lady was fired, and suddenly the numbers are much lower.

Sorcery!

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/editorials/fl-op-edit-coronavirus-florida-website-20200520-y5hqd7z5znfphan5ig2ehlh7mi-story.html

Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

#Truth