Monday, May 25, 2020

The future of football (this season)

The NFL has some contingency plans in place for "if" the Coronavirus is still a factor (which is kind of laughable if only because they are only thinking about their economic interests). So for now they are marching to the beat of opening training camps, and business as usual with packed stadiums starting in late summer.

The contingency plans call for pushing back the season a few weeks, or reduced capacity at stadiums. But that's reportedly as far as they've gotten. They're just wishing things away. Just remember that these billionaire Owners can suck up a loss of revenue for a time if they have to.

The nfl typically resumes sometime in late July / early August, but doesn't start their preseason until about 3 weeks later; and don't start playing "real" games until after Labor Day. So their schedule could be tweaked perhaps.

College football is coming at it a little differently. For them, the single most profitable thing major universities have is football. From gate receipts, to booster donations, to big tv contracts, this is the money maker that schools rely on building their budgets around.

But it's clear (and the ncaa has emphasized this) that unless the campuses are more or less open to all students, that football shouldn't happen. And so the bigger conferences (especially in the south) are pushing to get campuses open so they can get the football teams up and running.

But there is absolutely no consensus on when they might start play, or if they'd even allow fans to come to games. While students do make up a portion of these fans, most of them are alumni who travel back to their college campuses to attend the games.

So while you maybe could control testing the student and student-athlete population to keep the virus at bay, having 5 or so Saturday's with tens of thousands of outsiders coming on campus could be a disaster. But these are paying customers who often make a donation back to the university, so you do not want to alienate them. Especially in these weird times where some would argue that the university is taking this too seriously, or not seriously enough.

There is talk of maybe delaying the start of the season into the spring semester, which very well might be the best option they can come up with.

But who knows at this point what is going to happen?

The ncaa has the first scheduled game on August 29th, and usually gives about a 4 week build up time. But since spring football didn't happen, where coaches start building for he following year, they want an extra 2 weeks to practice. That would require athletes back on campus in mid July, or late July if they follow their regular schedule.

Except that most universities will remain closed until the first or second week of August. Can the student-athletes come back early?

And some (all schools in California) won't be open at all in the fall...so I guess California schools won't play football?

It's bizarre.

IS BILL MAHER RIGHT ABOUT COVID-19?

The more you know...



Sunday, May 24, 2020

Court rules “Dueling Dinos” belong to landowners, in a win for science | Science | AAAS

Intriguing. And by the way, this relates back to Disney in two ways.

First, the story of Sue the T-Rex who came out neighboring South Dakota had a long and drawn out legal battle over who owned her (complicated by her being found on an Indian reservation).

And second, when Disney first acquired the Florida property, they only had land use rights, and not mineral rights. So they had to obtain them as quietly as possible and brought in a former cia operative to help make it happen.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/court-rules-dueling-dinos-belong-landowners-win-science


Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

Donald Trump's 2014 tweet about Barack Obama comes back to bite him - NZ Herald

Yup. He was golfing yesterday as the number of dead rise to about 100,000.

But what are you gonna do? He ordered flags lowered to half mast and had a flyover to celebrate health care workers.

That's showing leadership in the face of the pandemic isn't it?

“Let then eat cake”

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12334334

Saturday, May 23, 2020

A follow up about Disney parks.

Disney world has been taking reservations along the way, always starting about one month out, and looking beyond that, into the future. There's a lot of aspiration in the idea of booking in the near-ish future. And I'm sure as a company they are assuming/hoping they can reopen shortly.

But things are very fluid. Disney has no crystal ball and can't see the future. And honestly anyone who is now booking a trip for the immediate future is a fool.

Yes disney is the bubble. The happiest place on earth. A place where you leave your troubles behind. And that's all fine and well.

Except that this virus affects *everyone* and in a crowded space like theme parks, such a thing can run rampant and affect scores of people.

So disney is balancing costs, losses, good will, safety, perception, and the risk of liability.

So as we move along through the pandemic, about 2-3 weeks prior to arrival dates, they send a message to the families with bookings (whether it's new or something you booked last year) and say "sorry we're still closed. Here's a refund on what you paid. Check back soon to rebook a future vacation"

And in April and May they've come along in the last week of the month and said they won't be accepting new reservations for another month further out, so right now you can not book anything new in June.

But here's the thing. The dunderheads of the world overreact. "You've been closed for a while now. I want a vacation in the happiest place. You need to reopen" or "I keep having to rebook and worry about flights and taking time off work. When will this end?"

Or they take umbrage with the policies for when they do reopen "masks? No way man this america! You lost my business"

And what seems lost in here is the very real possibility that Disney will change in some fundamental ways. People want things to "go back to normal" and simply can't be bothered to care that it will be different.

Disney has been seeking a way to tweak their business model for a while now. Keep attendance at a point where they like it, and be more exclusive. Cater to the wealthy more. Put limits on those of us who don't spend as much. Here's the perfect chance. Will they take it?

I mean this can't be easy. There's no one-size-fits-all answer. The dopes in the Oval Office and Tallahassee can say and do whatever stupid things they want. Though of course they shouldn't. Disney will act in their own best interests. And will continue to balance all the things I mentioned above.

A couple of industry analysts were asked to weigh in and speculate on opening dates for the theme parks Disney owns.

While a few were optimistic and suggested late summer (Labor Day seemed to a target), several others thought maybe the fall. And a few just said "we're prepared for it to be 2021."

And that goes right back to the idea of the nba setting the stage for opening.

There is expected to be an announcement in a week or so. Stay tuned.

No, NASA didn’t find a parallel-universe where time runs backward

A reminder to be careful what you read! 

Peter Gorham, the principal investigator on ANITA, says it's "some unfortunate tabloid journalism" and notes an early report by the Daily Star "just made some things up about myself and our experiment." 

https://www.cnet.com/news/no-nasa-didnt-find-a-parallel-universe-where-time-runs-backward/


Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.