Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Sometimes I wonder about what will happen next

You turn on the news, or pop over to social media and you hear that Trump is staging a coup, or setting himself up to fail.  Or any one of a number of things.

Lets take a look at some of them, and I'll add a few of my own:
  • Trump is going to contest the result if he loses, essentially promoting himself to dictator - so much for a accepting the results.  But he certainly has laid the groundwork for this one by claiming there WILL be fraud.  Not sure what would happen here.  Turn to the Supreme Court?
  • Trump won't leave the whitehouse if he loses, setting up a showdown with the next administration - hey about that peaceful transition of power (which hopefully will spark some of those around him to act, maybe?)
  • Trump has "secret" support and will win anyway.  Like last time, its possible there could be some interference, but from whom and it what form remains anyone's guess.  Most world leaders hold him at arms length, and I'm not even sure he has Russia's support anymore.  He was a useful idiot, but the damage he's doing right now is probably better than what he could do over 4 more years time.
And now to some of my thoughts:
  • The GOP could simply cut him loose and see if they can make progress with retaining the Senate.  Which could spell an early demise for him - and perhaps they even encourage him to accept the outcome or to step aside before the election
  • He simply quits.  This is probably the most complicated outcome.
    • Option A is he quits just to muck things up.  He just decides not to seek re-election because people don't like and respect him, and so he pouts and leaves.  And that leaves the GOP scrambling to support Pence.  Or they look for a way to add a candidate (which seems unlikely).  Trump would create more damage from this than anyone can guess.
    • Option B is he quits, but he plans it so that Pence can pardon him.  It doesn't muck things up in quite the same way, but does cause some damage because of abuse of power issues.
In any case, the reality is that he is doing things today that are fairly damaging.  From his insistence that students go back to school, to not managing the virus at all, to trying to kick out students, to gifting money to donors, to just railing against everyone, to still fighting to withhold his taxes (there's only one kind of person who does that by the way: a criminal with something to hide), to his xenophobia, to his environmental responses, to his mishandling of the Russian bounty program, to his continual assault on our constitution, we will be damaged for many years to come.

So no matter what we are screwed for many years to come.

I guess we'll see where this goes.