Thursday, May 6, 2021

A bit of a cautionary tale

The belief is that we'll need a 70% vaccination rate to reach a "herd immunity" meaning that there is enough antigens to ensure everyone is protected.

Right now, in the US, we are at about 30% of the population who have been fully vaccinated. We must remember, though, that this entire population includes children under 16 who (today) aren't eligible to receive a vaccine. And they make up close to 40% of the population.

That means that of the eligible 60% of Americans, only about half have received the vaccine. So if we extrapolate, that means that only half of the younger population will get it, too. And that only adds 20% of the population to the total number.

Which puts us at 50% vaccinated. Still much lower than what's required for the herd immunity.

In that case, the only option is to continue wearing masks and distancing.

But many states. Like Flori-duh. Have basically said "fuck that" and want to just return to whatever we had pre-covid. Exactly as it was.

Now here's the cautionary tale. India saw its infection rates skyrocket last year. Then, it leveled off, and started to decline. Some people in power made the rather presumptuous statement that so many people had been infected that surely they had reached the herd immunity.

They opened back up. And...infection rates soared once again. People who had gotten the virus previously, and even some that were tested and shown to have the anti-bodies, got the virus again.

There was no herd immunity from having it.

Now there's a story about another mutation that's evolved for which the vaccine "probably" will provide immunity. It's still being studied, but this one is 20x more likely to spread, and the severe illness rates remain about the same across those infected.

So we must remain vigilant. We must keep wearing masks to protect ourselves and those around us who can't - or selfishly won't - get a vaccine.

And we have to start seeing the vaccination rates go up here - and around the world.

Don't be a one of those folks who thinks you know your body and they can't take your freedoms.

This is going to drag on for much, much longer because of you.

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