Defense wins championships! So I looked at the average points allowed per game across the NFL, but focusing only on the 8 teams that had the best turnover margins.
Seattle is the favorite to win it all this year, but we're likely to be sure of it after this weekends games.
Why?
I ordered the entries based on that (lowest points allowed at the top), and predicted a winner for each round of the playoffs:
In 2019, the winner (KC) appeared after the divisional round
In 2020, the winner (Tampa) appeared after the divisional round
In 2021, the winner (LA Rams) appeared after the divisional round
In 2022, the prediction was Philadelphia (it was actually KC), and that wasn't clear until after the Conference Championship (but see my note about how close their points were, and the final in the contest was 38-35)
In 2023, the winner (KC) appeared after the conference championship
And in 2024, the winner (Philadelphia) appeared after wild card weekend.
And that means in 5/6 of the most recent years, we could pick a winner correctly based on points allowed per game. And in 4/6 we knew when the divisional round was over who it would be.
(OF COURSE this is all speculation and a bit of fun. It means nothing, and with humans involved in the playcalling, plays, and officiating literally ANYTHING is possible),
Details:
Using Defensive Pts allowed / game
2019
>> Entering Playoffs
New England +172 (lost in wild card round)
Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)
Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +45 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)
Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)
Dallas +81 (did not make playoffs)
Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)
Likely winner: New England
Outcome: Wrong
>> After wild card
New England +172 (lost in wild card round)
Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)
Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +45 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)
Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)
Dallas +81 (did not make playoffs)
Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)
Likely winner: Baltimore
Outcome: Wrong
>> After divisional round
New England +172 (lost in wild card round)
Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)
Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +45 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)
Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)
Dallas +81 (did not make playoffs)
Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)
Likely winner:Kansas City
Outcome: Correct
>> After conference championship
New England +172 (lost in wild card round)
Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)
Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +45 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)
Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)
Dallas +81 (did not make playoffs)
Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)
Likely winner: Kansas City
Outcome: Correct
----
2020
>> Entering Playoffs
Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)
New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)
Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)
Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)
Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl)
Arizona +56 (did not make playoffs)
Green Bay +53 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Baltimore
Outcome: Wrong
>>After Wildcard
Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)
New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)
Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)
Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)
Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl)
Arizona +56 (did not make playoffs)
Green Bay +53 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Baltimore
Outcome: Wrong
>>After Divisional round
Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)
New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)
Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)
Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)
Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl)
Arizona +56 (did not make playoffs)
Green Bay +53 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Tampa Bay
Outcome: Correct
>>After Conference championship
Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)
New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)
Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)
Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)
Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl)
Arizona +56 (did not make playoffs)
Green Bay +53 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Tampa Bay
Outcome: Correct
----
2021
>> Entering Playoffs
Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)
New England +98 (lost in wildcard)
Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)
Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)
Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)
Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)
Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl)
Likely winner: Buffalo
Outcome: Wrong
>> After wild card
Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)
New England +98 (lost in wildcard)
Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)
Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)
Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)
Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)
Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl)
Likely winner: Buffalo
Outcome: Wrong
>> After divisional round
Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)
New England +98 (lost in wildcard)
Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)
Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)
Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)
Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)
Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl)
Likely winner: LA Rams
Outcome: Correct
>> After conference championship
Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)
New England +98 (lost in wildcard)
Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)
Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard
Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)
Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)
Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl)
Likely winner: LA Rams
Outcome: Correct
----
2022
>> Entering playoffs
San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)
Buffalo +99 (lost in divisional round)
Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)
Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)
Cincinnati +43 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl)
Kansas City +64 (won superbowl)
Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: San Francisco
Outcome: Wrong
>> After wild card
San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)
Buffalo +99 (lost in divisional round)
Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)
Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)
Cincinnati +43 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl)
Kansas City +64 (won superbowl)
Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: San Francisco
Outcome: Wrong
>> After divisional round
San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)
Buffalo +99 (lost in divisional round)
Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)
Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)
Cincinnati +43 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl)
Kansas City +64 (won superbowl)
Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: San Francisco
Outcome: Wrong
>> After conference championship
San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)
Buffalo +99 (lost in divisional round)
Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)
Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)
Cincinnati +43 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl)
Kansas City +64 (won superbowl)
Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: Philadelphia
Outcome: Wrong
Kansas City finished second, 20.2 vs 21.7 PPG allowed
----
2023
>> Entering playoffs
Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)
Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)
Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +104 (lost in wildcard)
Miami +60 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +57 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: Baltimore
Outcome: Wrong
>> After wildcard
Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)
Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)
Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +104 (lost in wildcard)
Miami +60 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +57 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: Baltimore
Outcome: Wrong
>> After Divisional round
Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)
Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)
Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +104 (lost in wildcard)
Miami +60 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +57 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: Baltimore
Outcome: Wrong
>> After Conference championship
Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)
Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)
San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)
Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)
Dallas +104 (lost in wildcard)
Miami +60 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +57 (lost in wildcard)
Likely winner: Kansas City
Outcome: Correct
----
2024
>> Entering playoffs
LA Chargers +68 (lost in wildcard)
Philadelphia +72 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl)
Minnesota +64 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +69 (lost in wildcard)
Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)
Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)
Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: LA Chargers
Outcome: Correct
>> After Wildcard
LA Chargers +68 (lost in wildcard)
Philadelphia +72 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl)
Minnesota +64 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +69 (lost in wildcard)
Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)
Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)
Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Philadelphia
Outcome: Correct
>> After Divisional round
LA Chargers +68 (lost in wildcard)
Philadelphia +72 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl)
Minnesota +64 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +69 (lost in wildcard)
Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)
Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)
Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Philadelphia
Outcome: Correct
>> After Conference Championship
LA Chargers +68 (lost in wildcard)
Philadelphia +72 (won superbowl)
>> 5th best Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl)
Minnesota +64 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)
Pittsburgh +69 (lost in wildcard)
Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)
Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)
Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)
Likely winner: Philadelphia
Outcome: Correct
---
2025
>> Entering playoffs
Seattle +103
Denver +62
New England +73
Kansas City +76 (did not make playoffs)
LA Rams +98
Green Bay +37
Indianapolis +115 (did not make playoffs)
Detroit +83 (did not make playoffs)
Likely winner: Seattle
>> After Wildcard
Seattle +103
Denver +62
New England +73
Kansas City +76 (did not make playoffs)
LA Rams +98
Green Bay +37 (lost in wildcard)
Indianapolis +115 (did not make playoffs)
Detroit +83 (did not make playoffs)
Likely winner: Seattle
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