#MakeAmericaSmartAgain - Hurricane Forecasting

Setting aside whether you understand or believe in climate science, there is some basic science that is used to forecast hurricanes. I'll get to that in a moment.  But first, we have to understand that because of the general category of "politics" the National Weather Service is limited to some degree in its ability to accurately and reliably predict storms. 

As it happens, both the UK's Metrological group and a European weather group do a better job of tracking and predicting storms.  When you read up on the subject, you find that they put money into predictive tools, computers, satellites, and take CLIMATE SCIENCE seriously.  And over the years, their predictions have gotten better, since they appreciate the basis for hurricanes and climate-related patterns.

Now back to the hurricane predictions themselves.  There are many factors that impact storms.  Some of the more basic ones are: depth and temperature of water, surface conditions (such as barometric pressure), and other storms that may influence intensity or direction. There are other factors, of course, but that kind of gets it going.  And as an aside, the warmest waters and lowest barometric tend to be in the Florida straights (i.e., between Cuba and Key West), so all things being equal, that is the path a storm would take with no other influences.

The speed of the storm, and wind intensity are used to create a basis for the model along with these factors.  And many groups run their forecasting model against all of these variables and come up with a forecast.

And the Hurricane Hunter planes head into the storm to get accurate readings.  Yep, the coast guard sends planes into the storms to get readings on all of the factors in real time to share in order to formulate a prediction.

When all of these are aggregated together, they establish the bounds for where the storms will go.  For the 12-hour window, they mostly converge, so you have a small cone of movement, but as you move out 24-120 hours, this cone expansion significantly, because each of the model interprets data differently.

And because storms are moving 10-15 MPH typically, this makes sense.  It takes them time to cover large distances, and things can and do change in that 5-day window.

When you look at the map for Irma, the US-based models show it on a more northward path in the 5-day window.  The UK-based model has it near the center. And the European model has it further south over Cuba.  Historically, since the latter two have shown a higher accuracy its likely it will track further south.

But there are no guarantees, and we all have to remain aware and vigilant, and make storm preparation accordingly.

And here's the thing: we, as an affluent nation, should really take a hard look at our ability to predict storms. Since we bear the brunt of hurricanes, why is it that scientists across the pond can make better predictions that we can?  How does that make sense?  And we continue to try and chip away at climate science as a bad thing.  Wouldn't it be nice if we could predict - with some accuracy - where a storm will hit and how intense it might be?  In some cases, it may allow us to properly plan to open levees and dykes to move water.  In others, it might help with evacuation, or staging for quickly getting back to normal.

The modeling isn't all that hard.  The technology to do it well exists. We have bright people who want to do it.  We just need to take it seriously.

This is amusing

Sent from my iPad

There's always more to the story: West Virginia

While the media looks at the story and marvels at the West Virginia governor who switched his party affiliation as something that "means" something, let me remind you that there's often more to a story like this than meets the eye.

First, and foremost, Jim justice (what a terrific name for a guy like this - eyes roll) comes off quite a bit like el trompo. He inherited his money and invested it in a business familiar to him, in this case coal mining, and built an empire. His business tactics are often questioned by those around him, and he has a string of unpaid bills, just like the cheeto

And not only that, he's friends with the trumps. He apparently hunts with eric and junior, so there's a connection that way too.

Somewhere along the way, he got involved with some Russian business types, selling them a mine. Now the story is that he sold it for $600 million, and bought it back a few years later for $5 million, but I can't verify that specific claim. There is also a piece about him owing these Russian investors something, again without any specific proof.

Nevertheless, there was a business deal regarding a mine.

Meanwhile, the coal industry struggles in this country and he takes a loss from a business perspective. In order to try and help himself, he decides it's time to run for office. Prior to 2015, he was a republican. He sees the gov race in WV as an opportunity and decides to run. But the state senate president is the GOP darling and announces his candidacy.

What option does justice have? He switches his party affiliation and runs against bill Cole (the republican), of course! And he wins in 2016.

But again, he's friends with the trumps. Do you suppose it's a remarkable coincidence that trump talks about coal incessantly - when a friend is simply trying to "save his business"? If you do, I have some swamp land to sell you...

So at a staged event (when trump needs a little distraction), he announces he's switching parties and endorsing trump! Remarkable. And the media eats it up.

There's no real news here, per se. The news is in another Russian connection, and the likely backdoor deal that happened to help alleviate some tax burdens or something.

No this was about two inherited-wealth-from-their-fathers men colluding to further enrich themselves at our expense. That's the story. Not some contrived nonsense about dems being abandoned.

Sigh. When will the media stop with the sensationalism and get to the real reasons for the "change of heart" ????

Trump “$12 a year” health insurance comment perplexes nation.

What a maroon. It would be funny if it weren't so sad.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/07/20/trump_12_a_year_health_insurance_comment_perplexes_nation.html

So awesome 👏

Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

I love typos

Sometimes I forget there are two parallel universes here in the US: fact based and rational and alternate facts.

Most of the time, I encounter rational people who understand how things work. But once in a while, I encounter someone who appears moderately normal and engages in conversation....only to suddenly feel superior, and tell me I'm a sheep and spouting nonsense or worse, "liberal talking points."

Recently, I encountered such a person who then proceeded to tell me he'd debate all day. Except apparently he doesn't understand what debate means. A debate is where both of you present your thesis and defend it. I did. He didn't. Looking back I can see I was mildly baited into a discussion just so he could "win." So much winning!!!

Look here are some basic facts about the election:

The Russians sought to influence our elections, and did so.

Though "we" don't know the details, the intelligence community has told us it was more than influence.

The election machines in 21 states were hackable. Whether they were during the election is still unknown, but a post Morton in the election data and information that was leaked from the NSA certainly would suggest that at least some of them were.

In those and a few other states, election databases were hacked. The DNC was hacked, by Russia. There was - a few days ago - the inadverted posting of all voter information.

Many members of the trump campaign are under investigation for topics ranging from collusion, obstruction of justice, lying under oath, and/or money laundering to name a few. I will tell you that it is unknown whether trump himself is actually under investigation for any of these. But as the top of the ticket and the most ties to Russia himself, it's at least possible that he is, particularly where it comes to money laundering.

That's reality.

But there's an alternate reality where all of this is contrived, and trump is doing great things. The problem is that he has yet to sign a single piece of meaningful legislation. To actually have a real accomplishment.

Because his game is to distract and deflect while he gets rich, while violating the principle of the emolument clause, which congress refuses to consider in reality.