Vote no on trumpcare

Please vote NO on the healthcare bill. It will destroy services for disabled children and adults. Please do the right thing again and stop it. I read the following in the newspaper. It "violates the precept of 'first do no harm'" and "would result in millions of Americans losing their health insurance coverage." – American Medical Association, which represents doctors.

It is "the worst healthcare bill yet." – American Nurses Association.

It "would erode key protections for patients and consumers." – American Hospital Association.

The "process [in the Senate] is just as bad as the substance. ... Most Americans wouldn't buy a used car with this little info." – AARP.

The bill will "weaken access to the care Americans need and deserve." – American Heart Association, jointly with the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, the American Diabetes and Lung associations, the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, the March of Dimes and others.

"This bill harms our most vulnerable patients." – American Psychiatric Association.

It would hurt "consumers and patients by further destabilizing the individual market; cutting Medicaid; pulling back on protections for pre-existing conditions." – America's Health Insurance Plans.

It "would lead to a loss of health insurance for at least 32 million people after 2026. ... By repealing the ACA's coverage expansions and cutting deeply into the Medicaid program, the Graham-Cassidy bill threatens the health care of as many as 100 million people, from newborns to the elderly." – Sara Collins, The Commonwealth Fund.

in NYT today..it does all this plus destroy services for disabled

David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist

Defenders of the new Trumpcare — the Graham-Cassidy bill — are telling Jimmy Kimmel to be quiet and leave the health policy debate to the experts. So I wanted to give you a quick rundown this morning of what the experts are saying about the bill:

It "violates the precept of 'first do no harm'" and "would result in millions of Americans losing their health insurance coverage." – American Medical Association, which represents doctors.

It is "the worst healthcare bill yet." – American Nurses Association.

It "would erode key protections for patients and consumers." – American Hospital Association.

The "process [in the Senate] is just as bad as the substance. ... Most Americans wouldn't buy a used car with this little info." – AARP.

The bill will "weaken access to the care Americans need and deserve." – American Heart Association, jointly with the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, the American Diabetes and Lung associations, the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, the March of Dimes and others.

"This bill harms our most vulnerable patients." – American Psychiatric Association.

It would hurt "consumers and patients by further destabilizing the individual market; cutting Medicaid; pulling back on protections for pre-existing conditions." – America's Health Insurance Plans.

It "would lead to a loss of health insurance for at least 32 million people after 2026. ... By repealing the ACA's coverage expansions and cutting deeply into the Medicaid program, the Graham-Cassidy bill threatens the health care of as many as 100 million people, from newborns to the elderly." – Sara Collins, The Commonwealth Fund.

Take that, Jimmy Kimmel. You're nothing but a late-night talk show host trying to prevent your fellow citizens from losing access to decent medical care.

In today's Times, Paul Krugman brings back the three-legged stool to explain Graham-Cassidy.

 

Open letters to Gov Scott and Senator Rubio on healthcare

Mr Scott,

I understand that you are not a fan of what is referred to as Obamacare. I don't know the specific reasons for your dislike, but I would assume it has something to do with it infringing on the healthcare business, where you spent a large part of your career. But whatever the case, you and I both know it helps people in Florida.

I realize you resisted expanding Medicaid in the state, but you fought to keep the equivalent of the Low Income Pool. I don't claim to understand your rationale, because it's still federal money, but nevertheless, you saw the need to help the people in this state. You worked with Mr. Rubio and others to ensure that there was money available for people who needed it, and so public hospitals could stay open and provide services.

When the last round of "repeal and replace" came about, I read with some interest that you again reached out to Mr Rubio to get an amendment waiver so that Florida could retain some federal money, and continue to help low income people.

And now the latest bill sits in the senate. The sponsors and leadership there have made clear that it's "all or nothing," and no amendments will be considered. As it stands, the block grants that have been laid out would reduce the contributions to Florida by a number in the billions. I've seen various estimates ranging from $3 billion in year one to over $30 billion in 5 years. Whatever it actually turns out to be, the number is enormous and there is no way Florida could cover the shortfall, unless you raised taxes.

I don't see how you can turn a blind eye to those less fortunate, after you worked hard to get LIP (or a similar program) money. And after hearing your compassion for Floridians during Irma, it would seem almost cruel to turn around and recommend that Mr. Rubio accept this legislation; people will suffer without access to affordable healthcare or public hospitals.

I would hope you will confer with Mr Rubio and tell him this bill is not good for Florida, and that he should vote no.

Look, I understand that the ACA is imperfect, and needs some work. But I don't believe this is the answer, and it will adversely affect millions in our state. I would hope we - all of us, regardless of party or office, or even ordinary citizens - can work on something better.

Thank you.


—�—

Senator,

I have heard you are still undecided on your vote for the latest round of "repeal and replace" for obamacare. Though I think we can be honest and just call it repeal because there isn't much in the way of replacement.

I imagine that one step in your decision making will be to consult with governor Scott and other politicians, which I think is useful. But allow me to throw a couple of thoughts out there as a resident of Florida.

Mr. Scott resisted expanding Medicaid in the state, but he fought to keep the equivalent of the Low Income Pool. You helped him to keep a similar program, ensuring that there was money available for people who needed it, and so public hospitals could stay open and provide services.

When the last round of "repeal and replace" came about, I read with some interest that you and mr. Scott agreed that the money should still be available to Florida, and that you worked on an amendment waiver so that Florida could retain some federal money, and continue to help low income people.

On this latest bill, mr. McConnell has made clear that it's "all or nothing," and no amendments will be considered. As it stands, the block grants that have been laid out would reduce the contributions to Florida by a number in the billions. I've seen various estimates ranging from $3 billion in year one to over $30 billion in 5 years. Whatever it actually turns out to be, the number is enormous and there is no way Florida could cover the shortfall, unless the state raised taxes.

I don't see how you can turn a blind eye to those less fortunate, after you worked hard to get LIP (or a similar program) money. But there's another thing: I got your messages after Irma; you were working hard for the people in our state, to make sure they had the resources they needed and access to essentials. To turn around a few weeks later and simply undercut people's access to healthcare would seem almost cruel ; people will suffer without access to affordable healthcare or public hospitals.

Of course, I should also mention that many groups, from doctors, to veterans, to seniors, to advocacy groups have all said this plan is bad, and are opposed to it.

And finally, I wanted to call attention to the "Kimmel test" and mr Kimmels assertion that this legislation fails that test. Senator Cassidy thinks that it does not fail because he interprets it differently than mr Kimmel. And this a key point: he wrote it with something specific in mind, and interprets it one way. Others interpret the wording another way. If it's that unclear, then surely it's possible that there will be more questions, and it will lead to uncertainty and have unintended consequences.

That's not good legislation, especially if it affects nearly every American - even those with employer-sponsored plans may be among said consequences - and 1/6th of the economy.

It should not go forward like this. Take time to work through the details and come up with something better, and which actually is clear & concise, and keeps Florida in the red with the low income folks.

I would hope you see this bill is not good for Florida, and that you will vote no.


Thank you.

On this date in history: jump the shark

okay, I missed it by a day. But 40 years ago, the infamous scene where fonzie literally jumps a shark aired on tv.

From Wikipedia:

The phrase jump the shark is based on a scene in the fifth season premiere episode of the American TV series Happy Days titled "Hollywood: Part 3," written by Fred Fox, Jr.,^[5] which aired on September 20, 1977. In the episode, the central characters visit Los Angeles,  where a water-skiing Fonzie (Henry Winkler) answers a challenge to his bravery by wearing swim trunks and his trademark leather jacket, and jumping over a confined shark. The stunt was created as a way to showcase Winkler's real-life water ski skills.^[6] However, the scene also was criticized^[who?] as betraying Fonzie's character development, since in an earlier landmark episode, Fonzie jumped his motorcycle over fourteen barrels in a televised stunt; the stunt left him seriously injured, and he confessed that he was stupid to have taken such a dangerous risk just to prove his courage.

For a show that in its early seasons depicted universally relatable adolescent and family experiences against a backdrop of 1950s nostalgia, this incident marked a turn.^[opinion] The lionization of an increasingly superhuman Fonzie, who was initially a supporting character in the series, became the focus of Happy Days. The series continued for seven years after Fonzie's shark-jumping stunt, with a number of changes in cast and situations.^[7]

On Marc Maron’s WTF podcast Ron Howard talked about the first time the phrase was used by Happy Days co-star Donny Most: “Donny’s reading it and he kinda looks down, then says ‘what do you think of the script?’ and I shrugged and replied ‘people like the show, it’s hard to argue with being number one’ and he looked up and said, ‘he’s jumping a shark now?’. That was the first time I saw that phrase bracketed, before it was even done, you’ve got to give props to Donny Most.”^[8]

The phrase "jumping the shark" was coined in 1985 by Jon Hein's roommate at the University of Michigan, Sean Connolly, when they were talking about favorite television shows that had gone downhill, and the two began identifying other shows where a similar "jump the shark" moment had occurred.^[9][10] Hein described the term as "A defining moment when you know from now on … it's all downhill … it will never be the same."^[5] In 1997, Hein created a website to publish his current list of approximately 200 television shows and his opinions of the moments each "jumped the shark"; the site became popular and grew with additional user-contributed examples.^[5] Hein subsequently authored two "Jump The Shark" books and later became a regular on The Howard Stern Show around the time he sold his website to Gemstar (owners of TV Guide).

In a 2010 Los Angeles Times article, former Happy Days writer Fred Fox, Jr., who wrote the episode that later spawned the phrase, said, "Was the [shark jump] episode of Happy Days deserving of its fate? No, it wasn't. All successful shows eventually start to decline, but this was not Happy Days' time." Fox also points not only to the success of that episode ("a huge hit" with over 30 million viewers), but also to the continued popularity of the series.^[5]

Fonzie was not the first character to jump a shark. In the P. G. Wodehouse 1922 novel "Right Ho, Jeeves" Bertie Wooster's cousin Angela jumps a shark while water-skiing on the French Riviera. The event did not become a cultural reference, but was a major plot point in the novel, leading to, among other things, a broken engagement, a hunger strike and many midnight assignations in the garden.^[11]

Contact your senator

I just contacted my senators, along with 19 others, to ask them vote no on the latest version of healthcare. It's easy enough to get in touch. If you google "contact (senator name)" you'll be taken to their email form.  Just write a short note about why you oppose the bill, and make it personal if you can.  

If you need a little help, visit trumpcaretoolkit.org. 

And of course if you don't know your senators, just google that too.

Thank you!

Vicente. For presidente

this is an awesome video from Vicente fox.  He has my vote.  

What did we learn? Hurricane edition

Irma was noted to be the biggest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. That was an "oh shit" moment if there ever was one. And it caused a lot of damage on the islands, which is quite sad and devastating to the places affected.

Then, when we looked again, there was another storm (Jose) that formed behind it. And shortly after that, there was another storm (Katia) that formed over Mexico. So the panic level rose - especially after Harvey had just devastated Texas.

As a native to Florida, I consider myself a sort of amateur meteorologist. I was studying the storm, and thought it would go through the keys and up the west coast of Florida. But the models were saying it would probably be on the east coast, which was odd, but I'm not going to risk my life on intuition, so I prepared based on what the models said.

I caught a little local news and they were talking about the dangers and honestly they managed to scare me a little. But I was still preparing the same way. Then I watched some national news, after people from out of state called to see if I was evacuating. Oh my god. The national news was practically screaming "you're all going to die!" It didn't help that the governor misspoke and said everyone should evacuate Florida, when he meant people should evacuate low lying areas and go to a shelter.

I understand that they are trying to get people motivated to act. But that's a little over the top. And then there was a little douchebag of a radio host *cough* *rush* *cough* who was telling people the storm was a liberal conspiracy, which helps no one. And then he left his home in palm beach to flee, which shows what he's made of - he's spinning a storm as political to fit his whacked narrative.

Now to the main focus of what we learned. The forecasting models were very unclear at 5 days out. The storm was huge, and the entire state of Florida was in its path. Understanding the weather is tricky, and there are many variables. Surely forecasting has come a long way in 25 years, but it's still lacking in some ways. We have the technology and the ability to model and understand. If only we would spend more time and energy working on it. And then there's the money factor. They approved $15 billion in aid for Harvey, and undoubtedly will approve some for Florida, and other us territories for Irma and then for Jose. Plus the cost of sending in the national guard, search and rescue, the navy helping, etc.

How much would it cost us to better predict storms? How much would it cost to look for possible solutions to affect storms through some technology? (I have no idea if it's possible, but who's to say it isn't? That's what innovation/ingenuity is all about!) What would it cost us to invest in infrastructure and building technology to prevent these from being catastrophes? And what would it cost us to evacuate an area if there was a localized area that needed it? Probably less than the one time $15 billion investment.

Climate science is a real thing, and we need to take it seriously. Surely there is change in climate, since the industrial revolution. We can debate about the extent, and whether man has caused or accelerated it. But it's happening. Let's seek to invest in it and understand it. That's our best hope for the future.

Now, in looking over the history for both the European and U.K. Models I mentioned previously, they both showed a more westerly path throughout the 5 days, so I would argue they were more accurate. Perfect? Hardly. But better.

One last thing I'd like to mention is running from the storm. Years ago, there was a storm headed for Florida, and my mom wanted to leave. So we did, headed from south Florida up the coast. We wound up in Orlando which seemed safe. Except that the storm turned and hit us there, while leaving our homes in the south untouched.

For Irma, many people I know went to Tampa and Orlando, and a few went further north. And now the storm is bearing down on them as they sit in hotels.

This is the problem with forecasting and deciding to run - there's not enough information to go on, and people make relatively informed decisions based on their fight or flight instinct and listening to weather reports from breathless anchors.

We can do better. De-politicize climate science. Focus on doing better for society. Invest in infrastructure, and weather forecasting. See if there any ways to combat hurricanes, because there might be.