A followup up on our response to the coronavirus

I was reading an article last night in Science Magazine (an actual science journal, with peer-reviewed information presented in a fact-based manner, without sensationalism, and no bobble head trying to tell you what to think) about the way the coronavirus has mutated and what that means going forward.

To summarize one key point, there is no belief among scientists that there is - or will be - any sort of permanent immunity.  That eliminates any thoughts of herd immunity or that this can simply run its course.  Nope, this will not go away.  Unless, as they say, we get really lucky and it mutates in a way that would mostly neuter it.  Or until we come up with a vaccine (which, again, likely will be a temporary thing, more like a flu shot that will need an annual booster).

So if we listen to science, then we understand things.  There is a very real danger in this virus. And people who continue to spout nonsense saying stupid things like "its not that bad" or "its a hoax" or "there's no real risk, we should just get back to life as we knew it" are missing the point.

They are putting us all at risk.  And the person who sits in the Oval Office isn't doing us any favors either.

Look, we can still find a way to fight this virus, AND return to a semblance of normal.  Want to know what we can do?  Two things.  First, and foremost, there should be a national policy of mask wearing.  That's a no brainer that's really easy, and if it was presented as a way to prevent the spread, maybe people would listen.

The second is a government action.  And its to provide enough testing to actual understand the spread and do more in areas where outbreaks occur, but allow life to go on a little in areas that don't have an uptick in cases.

If I look at Florida, we have 67 counties.  Lets say you put 100 testing centers in each county, that's 6,700 testing centers.  If we assume that all states are the same, you're talking about 335,000 nationwide.  Sure, some places won't need as many, and you could fill in with other types of testing (hospitals and clinics, etc) to fill in.  But make them all just available 7 days a week for anyone that wants to get tested. And for free.

You'd need a central repository for information of course, but why not work with a big player in the tech space to develop something relatively quickly to use.  There would be a cost, and additional sites to review the results - and that will be whatever it is, but think about the money "wasted' in the PPP and other things - surely this would be less costly and give you a bigger benefit.

You could create a team whose job it is to do followups and contact tracing - someone tests positive, lets take the time to figure out who they came into contact with and get as many of them tested as we can. (hey, look, in some cases you're putting people to work).

What would happen?  People might go and get tested anytime they feel sick.  They'd be likely to go back and tested again later.  We could be testing for the virus and antibodies.  We could be looking at the long-term effects of exposure.  And of course, we'd get better, faster, and more efficient with the testing over time.

If you tag it to drivers license or phone number or something, you would be able to easily keep track of everyone and their progress.

I mean, its going to be hard to setup, but you might actually start coming up with better means of testing, of getting good information that tells you something about the virus.

Its really fairly "simple" on the surface.  Its logical.  Makes sense.

And that's exactly why we'll never do it.

Broadway and job losses

After I saw Hamilton, I started watching more youtube videos about the performance.  And I stumbled onto this mini-series were Adam Savage goes behind the scenes to see how the show comes together.

Its a fascinating look at what it takes to put on a production, and just how talented some people are - people that you never see, and who get little credit.

I've linked several episodes below, and they are worth watching.  But consider for a moment that while we think about the performers being essentially unemployed while Broadway is dark - there are the unseen folks who drive the production and have other skills (likely most of them can't sing or dance and may never have a desire to!) are also out of work for now.

Anybody want to do something about coronavirus?

There's this weird thing happening in the US right now. No one seems to have any plans for how to deal with the coronavirus, and there's a lot of misinformation, and mistrust for scientists and public health officials for various reasons.

And then there are wild, and ridiculous conspiracy theories, and that all of this is a hoax because a friend-of-a-friend has this or that happen or they don't know anyone who got it, or everyone is lying. 

But my bigger issue has to do with the inaction on the part of our government. They have decided that the economy is the only important thing, and that public health doesn't matter.  They want to let the virus "run it's course" or let herd immunity take over. 

There are two inherent flaws in the logic: (1) there is absolutely no consensus or scientific evidence in support of the virus infecting you just once, nor do we know if you remain a carrier (or for how long) after you've tested positive or recovered. 

And (2) there is no plan to actually do anything other than throw our hands up. No research into finding ways to prevent the spread. No mask mandate to slow the spread. No real contact tracing. No increase in the amount or availability of testing to be able to see if the plan is working. Ideally you should be regularly testing large numbers of people to validate the virus isn't recurring.

So about the "let it runs its course" - without adequate testing this is likely to continue to propagate and hospitals will be filled for quite some time. And we don't know what that means. 6 months? (It’s already been 4 1/2) A year? Forever? And holding out hope for a vaccine that will immunize you forever is just silly. That ain’t reality. 

As for expecting "herd immunity" first let's look at what that means:

Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.

So in essence it's people who have an immunity protecting those that don't. It works for many things. And in theory it sounds like it would work with this. Only we don't know if you can develop an immunity based on having had it. 

If we were actively looking at people who had it, following its course, and understanding the virus on a large scale then maybe this would work. 

But going into it blindly and hoping for the best is stupid. Hope is never a strategy. You can't wish this away. 

And if it propagates to a larger number of people then the economy is doomed anyway. 

So the idea that the only focus should be the economy is nonsense. 

We're screwed. And the only way out appears to be new leadership. Just saying. 

Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.

Do as I say, not as I do.

But there's fraud with mail in ballots! Can't vote by mail...eyes roll....

... and then this happens.

On Florida schools.

Funny thought: when the theme parks/amusements/attractions presented their plans for re-opening, I watched part of the live stream....Some lady from I Fly (indoor skydiving) gave her presentation from the passenger seat of a moving car. It was simply hilarious.

But now that I think about it, the lady in the moving car talking about how to safely re-open indoor skydiving got more attention than the entirety of Florida's public schools!

The governor never created a "task force" and never spoke with any districts, nor did the commissioner of education. And when the mandate came out last week for in-person 5-day-a-week schooling being to be offered, most school boards were shocked or surprised.

Music as a form of expression

I saw some random twitter thread where a musician was being criticized because his messages were “becoming too political, I just want to listen to your music...”

The artist responded by saying “it’s funny. If you listen to the lyrics of my songs, you’d realize that my songs express the same point of view. So thanks for listening.”

And that’s the thing. Music expresses something.  Whether it’s a love ballad or a political statement, music is often telling a story.

There’s an interesting thing that happened after the Kent a State Massacre: a music revolution was born. You can read more about it here https://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/music/ct-kent-state-massacre-music-20180504-story.html

So, yes, even Devo‘s “whip it” is about American optimism - in spite of its somewhat silly lyrics. I’ve talked about “walking in the sun before” but how about “land of confusion,” whose meaning becomes clearer if you watch the video, or “it’s like that” which in many ways expresses some of things we’re seeing today.

What was punk rock, exactly? Listen to a song like “rock the casbah” which went mainstream  sometime and see what you think.

I just find it interesting that people miss the simple point. “I like the music...wait it’s about what exactly?!”

The Surprisingly Controversial History Of Seat Belts | Wisconsin Public Radio

Funny how much the arguments against masks sound like the argument against seat belts...

https://www.wpr.org/surprisingly-controversial-history-seat-belts


Short. Sweet. To the point. That's the beauty Dave's iPhone.