Bitchin' Dave’s Blog

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Bitchin' Dave's Newsletter - Jan 23

Dave’s Musings

The NFL is experimenting with new ideas to extend their reach, and of course make more money.

They’ve reached critical mass on ticket prices, coming in at an average price per ticket at just under $400, not including parking or concessions (which are also exorbitant).

It can be fun, but it’s out of reach for the average fan. The owners know this and try and make it more experiential, and to make it worthwhile. (Even though on occasion, there is death by a fan at the hands of other fans. Come and enjoy a game; there's a 99% chance you'll make it home!)

International expansion is a real thing, and the league played a fair number of games in England, and Europe. And had a team stay over for a few weeks to see how a "home team" might fare in games against traveling opponents.

The money for broadcasting is through the roof, and the league experimented with putting a playoff game on a paid streaming service (After previously having regular season games be available that way). They announced it as a success, and I'm sure we'll be seeing more of that in the future.

You may also note that officiating was "suspect" throughout the year, which brought more eyeballs and more discussion about what was happening - and though its a fine line, it may have tweaked viewership a bit.

Owners change uniform styles periodically to goose merchandise sales and keep it fresh. And owners also fire coaches fairly regularly, to show that they are trying to be competitive. The average coaching tenure is just over 4 years, and in any given year 25% of the teams are looking for a new head coach. You have to keep your fan base engaged to stay relevant.

Last week, there was news about the Peregrine moon lander (the first planned moon mission for the US in 50 years) suffering an anomaly with its propulsion system.

Scientists at Astrobotic and NASA conferred and agreed that there was a faulty valve in a hydraulic system that caused a fuel leak. Sadly, they decided they couldn't land on the moon, and instead used the craft's momentum to crash land back on Earth - falling well short of the missions goals. But they did get some amount of data, and as they say "failure is always an option" because it provides opportunities to learn.

While they were unsuccessful, the next day, Japan became the 5th nation to successfully land a spacecraft on the Moon (the US, Russia, China, and India are the others). Even though there were issues with powering up the solar array, this is an exciting development for continued exploration.

The anti-science positions that many people take are breathtaking at times. Here's a story about Wisconsin, Texas, and Florida (of course!) banning (or proposing a ban) on studying pathogen origins. They also note that the US Congress also has a bill that would do the same, nationwide (though its less likely it will make it to a law).

At the heart of it is this notion that Cocvid19 was started from a lab leak, where Chinese scientists created the virus. They don't want that to happen here!

But these bans would also halt any studies into other things, like, say, the common cold or the seasonal flu. Oh the "law of unintended consequences!"

https://www.science.org/content/article/wisconsin-bill-restrict-pathogen-studies-worries-scientists

Disney's proxy fight is heating up! Nelson Peltz is using his shares, Ike Perlmutter's shares, and his Triad's company shares, to try and force himself and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo onto the board of directors, by replacing two current members.

As I've noted before, Peltz feels the Disney company is not focused enough on profitability, and has issues with Bob Iger in his second stint as CEO (and naturally is concerned about succession planning).

He wants to see a change in the company's direction, and once again sees an opportunity to take on the challenge.

Disney may have enough shares (ie, votes) to prevent this from happening, but it remains to be seen how this will play out.

Personally, I thought Jay Rasulo leaving the company was a shame - he really did understand how it all worked, and might have been in line to be CEO at some point.

I own a VERY small stake in the company (like 20 shares worth), but when the company asks how I'd like to use my vote, I certainly will consider Peltz's proposal.

Here's a story about how Germany has taken measures to reduce its emissions, and this has them at their lowest level since the 1950s.

While there is much work still to be done, they are well on the path to helping reduce climate impacts, and investing in renewables - also putting them on a path to energy independence.

Its a good news story in a rising sea of bad climate impacts.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/04/germany-reports-lowest-emissions-in-70-years-but-thats-not-the-end-of-the-story/

They're epically bad.

The Dolphins now become the team with the longest playoff drought in the NFL. Their last playoff win came in 2000. Since then, nada. They haven't been to an AFC Championship game since 1992. And last went to a Superbowl in 1984.

Some pundit noted that Mahomes has made 16 playoff starts (#17 is this weekend), and has been to all 7 AFC Championships while with the Chiefs.

Which reminds me to note that the Dolphins - in year 4 - are still trying to decide if Tua is any good. Take a look at the best QBs in the league, Mahomes included. Their success came early and often.

Anyway to the Dolphins all time playoff records:

Their heyday:

1970 0 - 1

1971 2 - 1

1972 3 - 0

1973 3 - 0

1974 0 - 1

The lean times:

1978 0 - 1

1979. 0 - 1

1981 0 - 1

1982 3 - 1 (okay maybe not so lean)

The Marino era:

1983 0 - 1

1984 2 - 1

1985 1 - 1

1990 1 - 1

1992 1 - 1

1994 1 - 1

1995 0 - 1

1997 0 - 1

1998 1 - 1

1999 1 - 1 (that drubbing in Jacksonville in Marino's last game)

Post Marino:

2000 1 - 1

2001 0 - 1

2008 0 - 1

2016 0 - 1

2022 0 - 1

2023 0 - 1

That makes the Dolphins 20 - 23 all time. Yikes.

They won two championships, so that means they've made the playoffs 25 times, and bounced in them 23 times.

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Bitchin Dave’s newsletter - Jan 16

Dave’s Musings

I know its cliche after a few weeks, but Happy New Year!

We keep hearing about how companies can self regulate and how things will just magically work out if we take away the burdensome rules and let the free market do its thing. But I remind you that in his 1981 Inaugural address Ronald Reagan said "In this times of crisis, the free market is not the solution to every problem, often it is the problem." We should always remember that as we think about how to "fix" a problem, especially here in Florida. I can't even begin to list the dumb ideas I'm hearing to supposedly help Floridians.

There was some serious space launch shuffling at year end, at Kennedy Space Center.

The critical factor was a Falcon Heavy launch which got delayed due to a technical issue; it carried the space plane, and was identified as highest priority.

So everything else had to wait. But we finally did see the Falcon Heavy go up just before the new year - and then the Vulcan Peregrine moon lander went up just after the new year.

We have no idea what happened with the space plane, as the mission is classified.

The lunar lander developed a problem with its hydraulics, and for a time it seemed the engineers might find a work around. But so far, no luck, and they think they will have to abandon the actual landing, and instead study the moon from orbit. Stay tuned.

Somber news to report: 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded. This was reported by many agencies here in the US, in the EU, and beyond.

People who continue to deny that the climate is changing need look no farther than some of the destructive, monster storms which plagued travel over the holidays (and continue to do so).

We, as individuals, need to do whatever we can and let our voices be heard. This clearly is not sustainable, and we can't just simply let things continue in the status quo.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record

Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, looking at our planet and its environment to benefit all European citizens. It offers information services that draw from satellite Earth Observation and in-situ (non-space) data.

Disney World made a big deal about “doing away with theme park reservations” as of January 1st (if you are not in the know, post-pandemic, anyone who visited a theme park needed to buy a ticket AND have a valid reservation for the specific theme park they wanted to visit).

While people gushed over it, to a large degree it’s kind of semantics. Disney now uses historical information, predictive modeling, and some other types of reservations to determine theme park attendance, and then can adjust staffing accordingly, or limit admission.

These other reservations include making dining reservations or “lightning lane” reservations (ie a guest books specific attractions in advance) months before they arrive. These would be specific to a theme park, thus helping them figure out where you will be.

Also, when someone purchases a day or multi-day ticket, it is based on the park(s) they will be visiting.

The wildcard element in all of this, though, are pass holders. These guests have somewhat erratic behavior and "can visit as many times as they want." So for now, they have been told they will continue to need a reservation for most days - unless it’s a forecasted not-busy day, in which case they can just show up; but they still have to check the reservation system.

I have no doubt that Disney will solve the pass holder conundrum soon. But for now it’s just a little more complicated.

In summary, I absolutely love how Disney uses data to understand much about guest behavior and how things work. And also understands how to use the right words to make it seem like they are changing something.

So yeah they’re getting rid of the reservations. Sort of. And replacing them with good data.

Right before New Years, there was an utterly ridiculous thing that happened which started trending on social media as #MiamiMall.

Here's the story: there was a large police presence near an outdoor shopping area known as Bayside (not Miami Mall). People realized this was unusual and rushed to a conclusion that what was going on was.....

...Aliens! As in ET.

And then took it to an even higher level of absurdity by claiming it was a government conspiracy, and maybe actually happened a half dozen years ago. And to add to the fun, there was a grainy video that shows the police confronting a 7 foot tall alien.

The video itself can be easily explained due to the low light and distance. The police presence was in response to an altercation and reports of gunfire at Bayside (the city of Miami has a heightened response when potential terrorist activities are reported). It did NOT happen "years ago with the video just coming to light." People in the area were reporting information in real-time, illustrating how far from the truth that was.

I have heard the FBI did arrive on the scene, as it was a potential terrorist activity - but they didn't take control or whatever nonsense was spewed.

It’s kind of amazing that an absurd story took off on social media like wildfire, with people wanting to believe something. And they ran with it for many days. (And it appeared in the news as recently as this past weekend!)

But its also a cautionary tale of how destructive social media can be. And how we can get sucked into some weird conspiracy theory. This particular incident is more funny than anything. But we should always be on guard against these types of stories.

Be careful what you read - and if it doesn't pass the "sniff test" maybe it requires a little more research and thought before choosing to continue to propagate the tall tale.

Monday, January 15, 2024

A followup to the after game conversation.

Turns out that my joke about maybe Mahomes telling Tua that "maybe one day you'll be good enough to play at the pro level" was closer to the truth than we might have guessed.

Apparently Tua asked for Mahomes' jersey and Patrick said no. How sad and embarrassing.

And just hilarious.

Mahomes' response to Tua asking for his jersey has fans saying same thing

talksport.com

Sunday, January 14, 2024

The after game conversation.

I've said before that I didn't think Tua should have ever played again after his concussion last year. But of course he did.

(As a quick aside, I found it telling that he didn't have a concussion all year, and that only a couple of NFL players were diagnosed with one. How can that be with the hits he and many others take? A change in policy on how they're monitored?)

This season was pedestrian, in spite of his looking good in moments. Hey, I could play in a video game offense and throw the ball up at times to elite receivers, too.

Anyway, at the end of the game yesterday, he and Mahomes shared a moment.

Here's what I think was said:

Tua: "when I grow up I want to be like you!"

Mahomes: "that's nice kid. Keep working hard and maybe someday you'll be able to play at the pro level"

Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Bitchin Dave's newsletter - Dec 26

Dave’s Musings

A quick note that this will be my last newsletter of the year. I'll be back around in mid-January. Wishing you and happy and healthy new year!

In the meantime, I'd like to encourage you to start the new year off with a plan to improve on yourself. Exercise more, engage in more self care, or maybe try something new.

We can all benefit from things like reading more (and since there are books being banned - why not see what those are about?), watching less tv, or engaging in learning something new. I've got a little science experiment I tried, which I share below.

To paraphrase Hamilton, smile more and talk less. The smiling can surely help improve your mood. And in talking less, we can listen to other points of view.

On the surface, the story about the beaming of a cat video from space seems kind of superfluous and maybe a little silly. (Cat videos were so 2010's!)

But as I've noted, part of the Psyche mission that was launched back in October was to develop a high powered laser to transmit large amounts of data, quickly and efficiently.

The video was a high definition recording that was received on Earth in just over a minute from 19 million miles away. It was the first proof that this technology will work for deep space travel, and will allow us to communicate with spacecraft in real time while transmitting a lot of data.

Call it an early success!

Nasa’s space laser transmission

Einstein's theory of relativity has been the defacto standard in physics for a few generations. It suggests how gravity bends spacetime. Then along comes quantum theory, which looks at spacetime differently. This bending doesn't work in the quantum model.

This problem has led some scientists to disagree about who is right, since these two of these ideas clash and could not coexist, because they account for the universe in different ways.

And, hey, arguing about scientific theories is always fun, IMHO.

But then two physicists came up with a possible explanation for how they can both be right: essentially, spacetime doesn't follow the same rules, and therefore quantum mechanics wouldn't explain it. They also proposed an experiment to test out this hypothesis.

So perhaps the argument can end - or maybe the experiment will lead to new questions.

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-theory-einstein-gravity-quantum-mechanics.html

As if they needed to worry about more, the Disney corporation finds itself in another tough spot - this time its in the form of a lawsuit from more than 9,000 women who work (or worked) for Disney and who are claiming gender bias and pay discrimination.

They are saying they were paid less than their male counterparts, were asked to fill a bigger role temporarily but were never actually considered for it permanently, were denied a promotion or title, and so on.

The suit was given class status, and probably bears some watching.

You can read more details here:

Hollywood Reporter article

In the movie Blazing Saddles, the townsfolk created a fake town to fool the bad guys. It was used with comic intent. However, the premise has been used in real life.

In World War I, France started construction of a fake Paris to fool pilots https://historyfacts.com/world-history/fact/in-wwi-france-started-to-build-a-fake-paris-to-confuse-german-bombers/

In World War II, the British and the Americans pulled off a ruse whereby they made the Germans think they were amassing forces in Southern England.

Quicksilver operation

Today, with satellites, that sort of thing isn’t possible… or is it?

There have been a few cases where people have been motivated to alter some physical feature so the satellites don't quite see what's going on, and there have been a few others where satellite maps have been altered for "security reasons."

And there’s also an oddity that has carried forward since the early days of mapmaking: map makers sought to protect others from copying their work by creating fake towns. If it showed up on someone else's map, then they knew it was copied.

And, well, here’s a 21st century example of how that carried forward into Google maps.

https://www.treehugger.com/paper-towns-and-other-lies-maps-tell-you-4863749