Superbowl Winner will be...

Defense wins championships!  So I looked at the average points allowed per game across the NFL, but focusing only on the 8 teams that had the best turnover margins.

Seattle is the favorite to win it all this year, but we're likely to be sure of it after this weekends games.

Why?

I ordered the entries based on that (lowest points allowed at the top), and predicted a winner for each round of the playoffs:

In 2019, the winner (KC) appeared after the divisional round

In 2020, the winner (Tampa) appeared after the divisional round

In 2021, the winner (LA Rams) appeared after the divisional round

In 2022, the prediction was Philadelphia (it was actually KC), and that wasn't clear until after the Conference Championship (but see my note about how close their points were, and the final in the contest was 38-35)

In 2023, the winner (KC) appeared after the conference championship

And in 2024, the winner (Philadelphia) appeared after wild card weekend.

And that means in 5/6 of the most recent years, we could pick a winner correctly based on points allowed per game.  And in 4/6 we knew when the divisional round was over who it would be.

(OF COURSE this is all speculation and a bit of fun. It means nothing, and with humans involved in the playcalling, plays, and officiating literally ANYTHING is possible),

Details:

Using Defensive Pts allowed / game

2019

>> Entering Playoffs

New England +172 (lost in wild card round)

Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)

Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)

Kansas City +45 (won superbowl) 

San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)

Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)

Dallas +81  (did not make playoffs)

Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)

Likely winner: New England

Outcome: Wrong

>> After wild card

New England +172 (lost in wild card round)

Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)

Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)

Kansas City +45 (won superbowl) 

San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)

Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)

Dallas +81  (did not make playoffs)

Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)

Likely winner: Baltimore

Outcome: Wrong

>> After divisional round

New England +172 (lost in wild card round)

Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)

Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)

Kansas City +45 (won superbowl) 

San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)

Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)

Dallas +81  (did not make playoffs)

Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)

Likely winner:Kansas City

Outcome: Correct

>> After conference championship

New England +172 (lost in wild card round)

Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)

Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)

Kansas City +45 (won superbowl) 

San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl)

Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)

Dallas +81  (did not make playoffs)

Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)

Likely winner: Kansas City

Outcome: Correct

----

2020 

>> Entering Playoffs

Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)

New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)

Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)

Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)

Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl) 

Arizona +56  (did not make playoffs)

Green Bay +53  (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Baltimore

Outcome: Wrong

>>After Wildcard

Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)

New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)

Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)

Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)

Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl) 

Arizona +56  (did not make playoffs)

Green Bay +53  (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Baltimore

Outcome: Wrong

>>After Divisional round

Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)

New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)

Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)

Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)

Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl) 

Arizona +56  (did not make playoffs)

Green Bay +53  (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Tampa Bay

Outcome: Correct

>>After Conference championship

Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)

New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)

Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)

Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)

Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl) 

Arizona +56  (did not make playoffs)

Green Bay +53  (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Tampa Bay

Outcome: Correct

----

2021 

>> Entering Playoffs

Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)

New England +98 (lost in wildcard)

Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)

Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)

Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)

Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)

Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)

>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl) 

Likely winner: Buffalo

Outcome: Wrong

>> After wild card

Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)

New England +98 (lost in wildcard)

Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)

Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)

Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)

Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)

Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)

>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl) 

Likely winner: Buffalo

Outcome: Wrong

>> After divisional round

Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)

New England +98 (lost in wildcard)

Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)

Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)

Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)

Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)

Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)

>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl) 

Likely winner: LA Rams

Outcome: Correct

>> After conference championship

Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)

New England +98 (lost in wildcard)

Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)

Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard

Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)

Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)

Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)

>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl) 

Likely winner: LA Rams

Outcome: Correct

----

2022 

>> Entering playoffs

San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)

Buffalo +99  (lost in divisional round)

Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)

Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)

Cincinnati  +43 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl) 

Kansas City +64 (won superbowl) 

Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: San Francisco

Outcome: Wrong

>> After wild card

San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)

Buffalo +99  (lost in divisional round)

Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)

Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)

Cincinnati  +43 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl) 

Kansas City +64 (won superbowl) 

Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: San Francisco

Outcome: Wrong

>> After divisional round

San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)

Buffalo +99  (lost in divisional round)

Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)

Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)

Cincinnati  +43 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl) 

Kansas City +64 (won superbowl) 

Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: San Francisco

Outcome: Wrong

>> After conference championship

San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)

Buffalo +99  (lost in divisional round)

Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)

Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)

Cincinnati  +43 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl) 

Kansas City +64 (won superbowl) 

Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: Philadelphia

Outcome: Wrong

Kansas City finished second, 20.2 vs 21.7 PPG allowed

----

2023

>> Entering playoffs

Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)

Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)

San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)

Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +104  (lost in wildcard)

Miami +60  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +57  (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: Baltimore

Outcome: Wrong

>> After wildcard

Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)

Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)

San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)

Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +104  (lost in wildcard)

Miami +60  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +57  (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: Baltimore

Outcome: Wrong

>> After Divisional round

Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)

Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)

San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)

Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +104  (lost in wildcard)

Miami +60  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +57  (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: Baltimore

Outcome: Wrong

>> After Conference championship

Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)

Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)

San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl)

Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)

Dallas +104  (lost in wildcard)

Miami +60  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)

Philadelphia +57  (lost in wildcard)

Likely winner: Kansas City

Outcome: Correct

----

2024

>> Entering playoffs

LA Chargers +68  (lost in wildcard)

Philadelphia +72  (won superbowl)

>> 5th best  Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl) 

Minnesota +64  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +69  (lost in wildcard)

Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)

Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)

Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: LA Chargers

Outcome: Correct

>> After Wildcard

LA Chargers +68  (lost in wildcard)

Philadelphia +72  (won superbowl)

>> 5th best  Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl) 

Minnesota +64  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +69  (lost in wildcard)

Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)

Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)

Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Philadelphia

Outcome: Correct

>> After Divisional round

LA Chargers +68  (lost in wildcard)

Philadelphia +72  (won superbowl)

>> 5th best  Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl) 

Minnesota +64  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +69  (lost in wildcard)

Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)

Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)

Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Philadelphia

Outcome: Correct

>> After Conference Championship

LA Chargers +68  (lost in wildcard)

Philadelphia +72  (won superbowl)

>> 5th best  Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl) 

Minnesota +64  (lost in wildcard)

Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)

Pittsburgh +69  (lost in wildcard)

Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)

Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)

Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)

Likely winner: Philadelphia

Outcome: Correct

---

2025

>> Entering playoffs

Seattle +103

Denver +62

New England +73

Kansas City +76 (did not make playoffs)

LA Rams +98

Green Bay +37

Indianapolis +115 (did not make playoffs)

Detroit +83 (did not make playoffs)

Likely winner: Seattle

>> After Wildcard

Seattle +103

Denver +62

New England +73

Kansas City +76 (did not make playoffs)

LA Rams +98

Green Bay +37 (lost in wildcard)

Indianapolis +115 (did not make playoffs)

Detroit +83 (did not make playoffs)

Likely winner: Seattle

Suck it Rodgers.

This makes me LOL

https://youtube.com/shorts/EJy0G3bhV1c?si=bYRv5kvFPQmjlvvQ

The world is weird...

The last few weeks have been very strange. And at the tip of that strangeness is the recent shooting of a "bystander" to an ICE action; it really says a lot about who we've become.  

I don't think the conversation should focus on who was right and wrong, but rather we should look at the bigger picture of an organization in ICE that is acting as an unchecked - and quite possibly unconstitutional - entity whose sole purpose is to remove "bad people." But they act extra judicially, with impunity, and conduct warrantless searches, all while hiding their identities.  And there are very many questions about who they are targeting, because it doesn't seem to the bad people as they advertise. 

And of course, there is no accountability.

This is not who we should be.  I would encourage you to write to your elected official and ask them to stand up for what's right and stop this madness.  There has to be a better way.  And I also like to suggest that if you can find a *peaceful*  protest or other means to take action, then you could do that too.

An ad for Facebook

During the holidays, there was this weird - but maybe cute adjacent - TV ad for Facebook. 

The premise was that in an office Christmas exchange, a guy got a woman he didn't know so he watches her at the office and comes up empty for ideas. Then, he goes to Facebook and discovers she's a KISS fan. So he gets her some KISS fan dolls. 

But the subtext really bothered me. The guy essentially becomes a creep and stalks his coworker to find out more about her.  He follows her around the office and (at least I remember it this way) a little after work.  Then, he digs into her facebook profile. And he uses the Facebook Marketplace to find these dolls from some sketchy guy.

It has such a stalker vibe to it.  And yet, that's kind of what Facebook is, right? They're promoting exactly what they are.  We've reached a level of interconnectivity so that anyone can cyberstalk anyone else, and privacy is a thing of the past.

Ugh.

If you want to know what’s wrong with the hiring practice today

Look no further than this. I applied for a job with "moveable ink" in March of 2024.  

And today (January of 2026!) I got a response about it. 

The system is broken. Or FUBAR. 

Hold ICE accountable.

Immigration and customs enforcement is out of control. You have extra judicial things happening. You have warrantless searches and arrests. You have American citizens being caught up in the very sweeping (and unregulated) processes - and those people are sometimes detained without due process and are sent to some third country in less than ideal conditions. Habeus corpus is suspended in many cases, in violation of the judicial branches orders. And you have masked men carrying these actions out in violation of the sixth amendment, the right to know your accuser.  

And then most egregiously, you had what amounts to an innocent bystander - an American citizen mind you - being shot and killed by an ICE agent. 

You have a duty to the constitution Senator, to hold those who are going beyond the constitutional authority accountable for their actions. The entirety of the department of homeland security, and the person who really has no qualifications to hold that position, must be thoroughly investigated for their egregious behavior. As well as anyone else who may be involved in giving what amount to illegal orders and who commit heinous acts of violence in the name of "security"

Hold Trump accountable

Mr Trump committed an illegal act in his attack on Venezuela.  All for the riches of oil to be spread among oil companies. 

And now he's emboldened and blustering about Greenland. Presumably it's because big shipping companies want easier access and more routes, not for any benefit to us as Americans. In spite of what he says. And the end result surely will be more contention with Europe and a break from nato due to his actions (which we could debate, if it actually went through the senate as of course it must) 

And he also continues to talk about Canada and some sort of invasion of that sovereign nation. I suspect he's after the natural resources, to benefit some other large conglomerates. 

Senator, he must be stopped. And that is your job. I expect you to hold him accountable for his transgressions.