I'm calling it now. One of these 8 teams WILL win it all: Indianapolis, Kansas City, New England, Denver, Seattle, LA Rams, Detroit, or Green Bay. Full stop.
Seattle vs Indianapolis is the most likely, based on their point differential.
Why?
I've summarized below the teams that had the highest point differential in week10 of the season, for each of the last 6 seasons, and how they fared in the end.
I did look at seasons prior, and the trend is the same. If you are in the top 4 in points differential, you are very likely to make the playoffs (92% over the last six seasons), and one of the 8 teams will win the superbowl.
I am aware that twice the team with the 5th best point differential made the superbowl, but both times that team lost.
Oh and by the way, something else I noted is that the teams that have a better win loss record, and generally those that get that bye, are much more likely to win in the end.
Here's the point differential...
AFC
New England +172 (lost in wild card round)
Baltimore +111 (lost in divisional round)
Houston +45 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +45 (won superbowl) <- had the bye
NFC
San Francisco +130 (lost superbowl) <- had the bye
Dallas +81 (did not make playoffs)
Minnesota +80 (lost in divisional round)
Green Bay +45 (lost in conference championship)
----
2020 week 10:
AFC
Kansas City +103 (lost superbowl) <- had the bye
Pittsburgh +100 (lost in wildcard)
Baltimore +79 (lost in divisional round)
Miami +69 (did not make playoffs)
NFC
Tampa Bay +70 (won superbowl)
New Orleans +58 (lost in divisional round)
Arizona +56 (did not make playoffs)
Green Bay +53 (lost in conference championship)
----
2021 week 10:
AFC
Buffalo +145 (lost in divisional round)
New England +98 (lost in wildcard)
Tennessee +46 (lost in divisional round)
Indianapolis +38 (did not make playoffs)
>> 5th best Cincinnati +33 (lost superbowl)
NFC
Arizona +98 (lost in wildcard)
Dallas +89 (lost in wildcard)
Tampa Bay +67 (lost in divisional round)
Los Angeles Rams +44 (won superbowl)
----
2022 week 10:
AFC
Buffalo +99 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +64 (won superbowl) <- had the bye
Cincinnati +43 (lost in conference championship)
Baltimore +39 (lost in wildcard)
NFC
Philadelphia +79 (lost superbowl) <- had the bye
Dallas +47 (lost in divisional round)
San Francisco +35 (lost in conference championship)
Minnesota +35 (lost in wildcard)
----
2023 week 10:
AFC
Baltimore +113 (lost in conference championship)
Buffalo +78 (lost in divisional round)
Kansas City +65 (won superbowl)
Miami +60 (lost in wildcard)
NFC
San Francisco +109 (lost superbowl) <- had the bye
Dallas +104 (lost in wildcard)
Philadelphia +57 (lost in wildcard)
Detroit +38 (lost in conference championship)
----
2024 week 10:
AFC
Buffalo +97 (lost in conference championship)
Pittsburgh +69 (lost in wildcard)
LA Chargers +68 (lost in wildcard)
Baltimore +65 (lost in divisional round)
>> 5th best Kansas City +58 (lost superbowl) <- had the bye
NFC
Detroit +113 (lost in divisional round)
Washington +73 (lost in conference championship)
Philadelphia +72 (won superbowl)
Minnesota +64 (lost in wildcard)
---
2025 week 10:
AFC
Indianapolis +115
Kansas City +76
New England +73
Denver +62
NFC
Seattle +103
LA Rams +98
Detroit +83
Green Bay +37
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