The college football playoffs

"Back in the day," the college football championship method was to have every team that qualified play in a bowl game.  But the bowl games themselves had tie-ins to specific conferences.  So the #1 ranked team in polling could be playing in the Rose Bowl against some team that wasn't even in the top 5, while the #2 team might play in the Orange Bowl against a team that was maybe #3.  

A group of voters would decide who won the championship based on the eye test.  Which team "looked better" in their game.

Then, they moved to a 4-team playoff that was more equitable, because the top 4 teams would square off and you'd crown a champion.  But, in this case, the selection of the 4 teams was sometimes a little suspect. A 10-0 team might get left out. 

So, they agreed to move to a 12 team playoff. That should make it fair!  

Except that there are oddities here, too.  The deal is that all of the conference champions get in (that's 4), plus the best “other conference” champion, and 4 of the remaining teams should be the next best in those big conferences, and that leaves 3 at large teams - meaning teams with good records.

But if we look at the current top 15 teams, you may notice, that:

The SEC has 6 teams

Big 10 has 4

Big 12 has 3

The ACC has 1

And there's Notre dame. 

1. Ohio State: 11-0 (big 10)
2. Indiana: 11-0 (big 10)
3. Texas A&M: 11-0 (sec)
4. Georgia: 10-1 (sec)
5. Oregon: 10-1 (big 10)
6. Ole Miss: 10-1 (sec)
7. Texas Tech: 10-1 (big 12)
8. Oklahoma: 9-2 (sec)
9. Notre Dame: 9-2 x
10. Alabama: 9-2 (sec)
11. BYU: 10-1 (big 12)
12. Vanderbilt: 9-2 (sec)
13. Miami (Fla.): 9-2 (ACC)
14. Utah: 9-2 (big 12)
15. Michigan 9-2 (big 10)

Which is leaning very heavy toward the SEC and Big 10.  And there's the complicating factors that:

• #20 James Madison is 10-1 and should be in consideration, 
• #22 Tulane is 9-2 and likely will represent that "other conference"
• The ACC champion probably will not be Miami
• And Texas and Tennessee (both in the sec) are at least being considered.

So who winds up in the 12?  Several analysts have suggested this list (though the order may be different):

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas A&M
5. Texas Tech
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma
11. SMU (ACC champion)
12. Tulane

Which is heavy on the SEC and Big 10 (still), and leaves out a 10-1 James Madison, and what will probably be a 10-2 Miami - who probably could beat anyone on a good day. And others who maybe could win some games.

My question is: what gives?

And the simplest answer is that while this is about competition and finding "the best team," its also about money.  The SEC and Big 10 are the biggest money makers.  Each of the teams in the tournament has a large fan base that is happy to spend top dollar to see their teams play!

You can make the same case for the next tier in the Big 12, and Notre Dame (which can be easily seen by the fact that they can be profitable as an independent).

James Madison and others have small fan bases and don't clamor for tickets the same way. 

Miami is similar in that its a small, private university, and doesn't have the huge, fervent fan base. Sure, they're wealthy, but they don't fill stadiums.

And in Miami's case, there's an additional factor.  During the 80s and 90s they were a team that had a serious swagger.  They were good and knew it.  And some might say they "embarrassed" their opponents quite frequently.  They became the most hated team. Full stop.

And then, the team descended into 20 years of mediocrity.  They haven't won jack.  They've been through many coaches. They joined the ACC at some point, and haven't won a conference championship (and only played in one once).  

But yet, that hate persists.  And so when it comes down to a choice between them and a random team with the same record and rabid fan base, guess who will get the nod?